Primary device of the future?

November 29 2007

In one of my customer meetings over the last few weeks, I heard something that at first seemed very startling, but has grown on me in the subsequent weeks.

This organization, an academic concern, told us that, as they look out on a five-year planning horizon, they are predicting a major technology change.  In five years, they expect that smartphone devices such as iPhones and Blackberries will be the primary device for their end-users....not desktop/laptop computers.

It happens that the same week we had this conversation, there were stories in the news that in the Japanese market, PC sales are losing ground to gadgets.

Overall PC shipments in Japan have fallen for five consecutive quarters, the first ever drawn-out decline in PC sales in a key market, according to IDC. The trend shows no signs of letting up: In the second quarter of 2007, desktops fell 4.8 percent and laptops 3.1 percent.

NEC's and Sony's sales have been falling since 2006 in Japan. Hitachi said October 22 it will pull out of the household-computer business entirely in an effort to refocus its sprawling operations.

"Consumers aren't impressed anymore with bigger hard drives or faster processors. That's not as exciting as a bigger TV," Katayama said. "And in Japan, kids now grow up using mobile phones, not PCs. The future of PCs isn't bright."
Now, I don't know how quickly this happens across-the-board, especially a move into the corporate space.  But for sure it makes sense for certain types of workers -- the package delivery guy who was just at my door, for example.  

There are all sorts of issues -- will input technology evolve in such a way that makes the pocket-sized smartphone more appealing than a laptop or tablet form factor?  Will the wireless networks evolve bandwidth in a way that makes it practical (watching youtube videos on the iPhone, or streaming video on a Verizon device, is just the start of that use case).  Or will this pervasive bandwidth and connectivity lead to a voice-first communication method, where we evolve to videophones and the written word gets left behind?

I don't have the right answer, but I have been enjoying peering into the Pearl -- err, crystal ball -- over the last few weeks to try to figure this out.  Maybe that iPhone upgrade should be on the list for 2008.

Ed Brill | Highland Park, IL USA Category:  In the news  Add/View Comments [21]

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  1. 1  Karen Demerly  | 11/30/2007 12:44:11 PM

    Way to justify that new purchase, Ed! *laugh*

  1. 2  Dave Clarke  | 11/30/2007 1:14:27 PM

    I still contend that the qwerty keyboard will disappear (either as physical keys or as a visual representation) and we will move very quickly toward more natural means of communicating...video and voice.

    Recognizing the argument that I can read something more quickly than I can type it, the fact is that I can still SAY something more quickly than I can type.

    As the interface changes and we have the ability to send video and voice on mobile devices, so will the nature of those communications. Much more conversational...much less formal...much more succinct.

    It would have been alot easier for ME to say this to you directly than to type in this little box...

  1. 3  Peter Smith  | 11/30/2007 1:19:01 PM

    Maybe in 5 years the primary device for e-mail will not be a PC but a handheld, which I can relate to as I answer and send as many mails from my Blackberry as I do from my laptop.

    But, as the saying goes, no-one is employed to read e-mail, so there will be a need for a PC / Laptop to run the apps necessary for them to function for everything else.

    The home PC market may now be saturated as everyone has caught up on being online. The ability to add new components (unlike consoles) will keep those PCs in use for a few years, hence the probably dip in new sales.

    The next growth phase may be in media streaming solutions for the home,(a collegue just bought a HP Windows Home Server, I've got a NAS plus a Pinnacle Show Centre), all those new TV buyers will want something to watch on them.

  1. 4  Lee Sweet  | 11/30/2007 1:20:34 PM

    But until voice recognition can do virtually 100% (especially in correct context), I'm not so sure. (I don't even like voice mail trees where I have to say Yes or No instead of quickly being able to hit 1 or 2!)

  1. 5  Ed Brill http://www.edbrill.com | 11/30/2007 1:29:09 PM

    @2 "It would have been alot easier for ME to say this to you directly than to type in this little box..." -- wait, you DID say this to me yesterday. :)

  1. 6  John Vaughan http://jonvon.net | 11/30/2007 1:32:06 PM

    the play for the big boys will be here (i think he's right):

    { Link }

    i thought of that post as soon as i read this. interesting times...

  1. 7  Duffbert http://www.twduff.com | 11/30/2007 3:34:44 PM

    I had a similar conversation with a friend about three months ago. He contended that the iPhone would be the "PC" of the future. Right now, quite a few people plug their laptops into docking stations to get a full-size keyboard, monitor, mouse, ethernet, etc. At that point, the laptop is really just the CPU and disk (i.e. - the standard desktop). It's not a technical stretch to see 2 to 5 years down the road where an iPhone-sized package could contain 250 GB hard drives and faster CPUs. Offer up an iPhone docking station, and you have a laptop that fits in your pocket.

    After thinking about it after the conversation, I can't see any reasons why something like that *couldn't* happen. Not to say it will, but it's not a huge technology leap to get there.

  1. 8  Keil Wilson  | 11/30/2007 4:00:33 PM

    I've never owned a mobile phone until recently when I bought an iPhone. I sit at a desk all day (which has a land line), so there was really no reason for a mobile phone to sit at my desk with me. While the iPhone is a handy phone it's not the primary reason I bought the phone. I wanted the iPod and access for personal web browsing and and personal email while I'm working during the day (which I only do during official break time and lunch btw ;)). What has surprised me is that I almost never use my home computer for web browsing or checking email at home anymore. The iPhone is just so much faster and easier. That being said, if I want to participate in an online forum or need to do a lot of data entry, the iPhone quickly becomes less practical. But this phone has revolutionized my day-to-day interaction with the Internet. I'm so much more impressed with it than I thought I'd be.

    P.S. - I don't mean to gush about the iPhone. I'm sure the Treo or Blackberry (or even some Windows Mobile devices) are equally capable of providing a similar email/browsing experience.

  1. 9  Craig Wiseman http://www.wiseman.la/cpw | 11/30/2007 4:29:20 PM

    Hmmm. Ed - please get an iPhone, and then lean on your folks to get wireless sync of Journal/Contacts/Calendar into Domino.

    Oh, and IMAP support for IDLE mode so 'push' mail works on the iPhone.

    ;-)

  1. 10  Bob Frank  | 11/30/2007 5:30:14 PM

    Ed. Considering an iPhone? ... Ok, who are you and what have you done with Ed?

    :-)

  1. 11  Lee Sweet  | 11/30/2007 5:37:25 PM

    @9 Unless you mean 'native', as in Traveler, CommonTime will do this in 'Summer 2008', I believe. (We use CommonTime's mSuite with Windows Mobile products now with excellent results.)

  1. 12  Craig Wiseman http://www.wiseman.la/cpw | 11/30/2007 6:08:59 PM

    @11 - well, I'd hope at least the enhanced IMAP would be native.....

  1. 13  Henry Ferlauto http://www.geniusinside.com | 11/30/2007 6:12:52 PM

    Handheld data devices will continue on a great upward swing and the laptops and desktops will be flat / slightly downward for obvious reasons: Not too many people have handheld data devices whereas pretty much everybody already has a "PC."

    Also, handheld devices have a pretty limited life span because (a) people do drop them and (b) the size still limits capacity in a handheld and there are major jumps in capacity every year; much more so than with traditional PCs.

    But I don't see myself writing lengthy proposals on a handheld device anytime soon.

    Likewise, I don't see students writing their thesis or term papers on a handheld device either.

    Many people perform many small tasks throughout the day with small devices. But the less frequent, but equally necessary "heavy lifting" still requires something more substantial.

    Both form factors have their appropriate places.

  1. 14  Jess Stratton http://www.mattandjess.net | 11/30/2007 7:28:54 PM

    Ever since I got my smartphone, I find I've needed my PC about 75% less than I used to. Some days I don't even turn it on! (there is no one more surprised than I) With my handheld, at the single press of a button, I can check if my unread count on my email has gone up at any time on the Today screen. If it has, I can quickly read it. If not, no new email. This one feature means a world of freedom. People may think I am "glued" to my handheld, but in reality, it is just the opposite. It has freed me from my PC.

  1. 15  David Mackey http://www.informednetworker.com/ | 11/30/2007 10:52:35 PM

    Hmmm...I have a hard time believing it. While I see mobile devices are picking up precedence, I still think there is a massive need for PCs/laptops. What I can see is one device that powers most items in our home and is perhaps removable as a smaller mobile device.

  1. 16  Mike Weitzel  | 12/1/2007 2:49:00 AM

    @2 - Dave, I still remember a day not that long ago when everybody was laughing at the QWERTY keyboard on the first blackkberries, next thing you know the E61 gets released, then other manufacturers followed. I think that the keyboards will still stay for a while... (Definitely while the iPhone like keyboard functionality is maturing.)

    @15 - I think everybody that is a mobile device user would agree that there is still a big role that desktop computers (even laptops?) have to play. I find myself however already using a smartphone as my primary device and only reverting back to my computer for specialised applications or for tasks that are screen size 'sensitive'.

    For mobile devices to take over from desktops a lot depends on the available functionality and ease of use. Both of which have been improving dramatically over the past 5 years and then iPhone no doubt is testimony to that.

    Naturally also the job one is doing will determine largely as to whether a desktop based system or a mobile device is going to be prime.

    (By the by, this comment was posted from my smartphone... ;-)

  1. 17  John Rowland  | 12/1/2007 6:11:26 AM

    Phil Greenspun had a piece about device convergence a couple of years ago. I can't verify the link right now because I'm working offsite and being blocked by a filter, but I believer this is the correct url: { Link }

  1. 18  Volker Weber http://vowe.net | 12/1/2007 5:01:28 PM

    Voice first. That must be Italy where people would never attach phones to belts, since they are already attached to ears. Mobile devices have been my primary tool for handling email and PIM data for more than a year now.

    Many of us currently arrange our work around email. IM is only one scenario this could change into. Someting mobile is much more likely.

  1. 19  Rob Wunderlich http://www.dominounplugged.com | 12/2/2007 10:14:35 PM

    Ed, I'll resist the temptation to say something along the lines of "I told you so."

    Interestingly, the "Unofficial Apple Weblog" had a post this week { Link } quoting an article at Inc.com { Link } which bluntly says "the cell phone is the next major computing device."

    As pointed out earlier in your responses, Commontime has already announced support for iPhone, which means that you can connect Palm, Windows Mobile, Symbian and now iPhone devices to Domino through them, and Blackberry, obviously, through a BlackBerry server.

    Your next computer MIGHT have a ringtone!

  1. 20  Roberto Boccadoro  | 12/3/2007 12:06:31 PM

    @18 - Yes, we use ears with phones; wonder if we should use some other part of the body. How do you use phones in Germany ? :-)

    RoB